Weekly grain report

Byron Behne watches the grain markets for the Odessa Union Warehouse.

2/3/12: Wheat futures fell Friday after Russia’s announcement that there would be no curbs on exports and raised their export projection to 27 million metric tons. That seemed like it should have done some pretty severe damage to wheat prices, however Chicago futures were only off 2 cents on the day. There’s another USDA supply and demand report out next Thursday to contend with. There should be some cuts to South American crop production; the question is, how much?

2/6/12: In spite of a rising dollar, the wheat market continued its rally on Monday, as Chicago futures finished 7 cents higher, and white wheat was up a nickel. As was the case last week we see prices running up against trend line resistance which stretches all the way back to the peak in wheat prices in February 2011. A week ago the daily contract managed to push through this resistance and give us a pretty nice price bump, so it will be interesting to see if the weekly chart can match that and continue to push higher or whether resistance above the trend remains too great and prices fall off again. Perhaps this week’s USDA report on Thursday will mark the turning point one way or the other.