Weekly grain report

Byron Behne watches the grain markets for the Odessa Union Warehouse.

8/1/12: Prices continued their break on Wednesday, although they recovered much of their losses by the close of the futures trading session. Corn futures were off as much as 25 cents but closed only down a little over 4 cents, with new-crop December futures closing over $8 on the day. Soft white prices dipped 20 cents in the morning but gained back a dime in the afternoon based on the better close in Chicago. November soybeans closed a gap on their price chart dating back to the opening of futures on Sunday evening. Absent any new revelations, the trade will probably remain two-sided going into next Friday’s supply-and-demand report. Private estimates for yields on corn and soybeans will be released throughout the run-up to the report to give the market something to chew on.

8/6/12: Lots of chop today with soybean futures down big, corn dipping a couple of cents and wheat closing in the green in Chicago. Weekend rains were better than anticipated in parts of Iowa and Illinois and, since the bean crop isn’t quite as dead as corn, it was deemed that there would be some positive effects as a result. Sovecon downgraded Russia’s wheat production another 5 million metric tons. Western Australia is still in need of a rain. There’s another USDA supply-and-demand report coming out on Friday.

8/7/12: As if we needed more volatility, it looks like this Friday’s USDA supply-and-demand report is setting up to provide a big move in the grain markets. All three of the major Chicago grain futures markets have been coiling up over the past few weeks with a break higher or lower for each looking to coincide with the report at the end of the week. The question may be not what the USDA projects for crop production but how drastically they slash demand in order to make the ending numbers balance.